Sensitivity Analysis in Divination: Which Variables Matter Most?

BY NICOLE LAU

A typical divination reading reveals 10-20 variables—beliefs, emotions, external forces, timing, relationships. But not all variables are equally important. Some are high-leverage—changing them shifts the entire system. Others are low-leverage—changing them has minimal impact. The question is: which is which?

In Dynamic Divination Modeling Theory, we perform sensitivity analysis—systematically testing which variables have the greatest impact on outcomes. This reveals where to focus your energy for maximum effect, transforming divination from general advice into precise strategic guidance.

This article teaches you how to identify high-leverage variables in any reading, prioritize your actions, and avoid wasting energy on low-impact factors.

What is Sensitivity Analysis?

Definition

Sensitivity analysis measures how much a system's output changes when you change one input variable while holding others constant.

Question it answers: "If I change Variable X by 10%, how much does the outcome change?"

High sensitivity: Small change in variable → Large change in outcome (high leverage)
Low sensitivity: Large change in variable → Small change in outcome (low leverage)

Why It Matters

Without sensitivity analysis, you might:
• Focus on the wrong variables (low leverage)
• Miss the critical leverage points (high sensitivity)
• Waste energy on factors that don't matter
• Fail to prioritize effectively

With sensitivity analysis, you:
• Identify the 20% of variables that create 80% of results (Pareto principle)
• Focus energy where it matters most
• Achieve maximum impact with minimum effort
• Make strategic, not scattered, interventions

Sensitivity Analysis in Tarot: The Method

Step 1: Identify All Variables

List every variable in the reading.

Example reading (Variable Mapping Spread, 12 cards):
Internal: The Magician (belief), Five of Cups (emotion), King of Pentacles (skill)
External: Ace of Wands (opportunity), Saturn card (restriction), Six of Pentacles (support)
Relational: Three of Cups (community), Hierophant (guidance), Two of Swords (conflict)
Temporal: Eight of Pentacles (process), Wheel of Fortune (timing), Three of Wands (trajectory)

Variables identified: 12 total

Step 2: Baseline Outcome Assessment

Determine the current predicted outcome based on all variables.

Method: Average polarity of all cards, or use outcome position if spread has one.

Example:
Average polarity = (+9 + -4 + +7 + +8 + -5 + +4 + +5 + +6 + 0 + +6 + +3 + +7) / 12 = +3.8
Baseline outcome: Moderately positive (+3.8 on -10 to +10 scale)

Step 3: Test Each Variable's Impact

For each variable, ask: "If this variable improved by +5 points (or worsened by -5), how much would the outcome change?"

Example: Testing The Magician (belief)
Current: +9
If improved to +10 (max): Outcome = +4.0 (change of +0.2)
If worsened to +4: Outcome = +3.4 (change of -0.4)
Sensitivity: Low (±0.2-0.4 change for ±5 point shift)

Example: Testing Five of Cups (emotion)
Current: -4
If improved to +1: Outcome = +4.2 (change of +0.4)
If worsened to -9: Outcome = +3.4 (change of -0.4)
Sensitivity: Low-Medium (±0.4 change)

Example: Testing Ace of Wands (opportunity)
Current: +8
If improved to +10: Outcome = +4.0 (change of +0.2)
If worsened to +3: Outcome = +3.4 (change of -0.4)
If completely removed (0): Outcome = +3.1 (change of -0.7)
Sensitivity: Medium-High (removing it drops outcome significantly)

Step 4: Rank Variables by Sensitivity

Create a sensitivity ranking from highest to lowest impact.

Example ranking (impact on outcome):
1. Ace of Wands (opportunity): ±0.7 impact → HIGH SENSITIVITY
2. Saturn (restriction): ±0.6 impact → HIGH SENSITIVITY
3. King of Pentacles (skill): ±0.5 impact → MEDIUM-HIGH SENSITIVITY
4. Three of Wands (trajectory): ±0.5 impact → MEDIUM-HIGH SENSITIVITY
5. Six of Pentacles (support): ±0.4 impact → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
6. Five of Cups (emotion): ±0.4 impact → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
7. Hierophant (guidance): ±0.3 impact → LOW-MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
8. Three of Cups (community): ±0.3 impact → LOW-MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
9. Eight of Pentacles (process): ±0.2 impact → LOW SENSITIVITY
10. The Magician (belief): ±0.2 impact → LOW SENSITIVITY
11. Wheel of Fortune (timing): ±0.2 impact → LOW SENSITIVITY
12. Two of Swords (conflict): ±0.1 impact → VERY LOW SENSITIVITY

Step 5: Focus on High-Sensitivity Variables

Prioritize the top 3-5 variables for intervention.

High-leverage variables (focus here):
1. Ace of Wands (opportunity) — Seize this, it's critical
2. Saturn (restriction) — Address this obstacle, it's blocking progress
3. King of Pentacles (skill) — Develop this, it's a key differentiator
4. Three of Wands (trajectory) — Set clear vision, it guides everything

Low-leverage variables (don't obsess over these):
• The Magician (belief) — Surprisingly low impact in this system
• Wheel of Fortune (timing) — Less critical than expected
• Two of Swords (conflict) — Minimal impact, don't waste energy here

Advanced Technique: Interaction Effects

Some variables have low individual sensitivity but high interaction sensitivity—they amplify or dampen other variables.

Testing Interactions

Question: "Does Variable A's impact change when Variable B changes?"

Example:
The Magician (belief) alone has low sensitivity (±0.2)
But: The Magician + Ace of Wands (belief + opportunity) together = ±1.2 impact
Interaction effect: Belief amplifies opportunity. Without belief, opportunity is wasted. With belief, opportunity is maximized.

Implication: The Magician is a multiplier variable—low direct impact, but high amplification effect. Don't ignore it; pair it with high-sensitivity variables.

Sensitivity Analysis in I Ching

Changing Line Sensitivity

Which changing lines have the greatest impact on the transformed hexagram?

Method: Test each line individually.

Example:
Primary: Hexagram 3 (Difficulty at Beginning) with lines 1, 3, 5 changing
Transformed: Hexagram 17 (Following)

Test Line 1 alone changing: Hex 3 → Hex 24 (Return)
Test Line 3 alone changing: Hex 3 → Hex 60 (Limitation)
Test Line 5 alone changing: Hex 3 → Hex 49 (Revolution)

Sensitivity ranking:
• Line 5 (Revolution) = Highest sensitivity (most dramatic transformation)
• Line 1 (Return) = Medium sensitivity (significant but less radical)
• Line 3 (Limitation) = Lower sensitivity (constraining transformation)

Interpretation: Line 5 is the critical variable—it's driving the transformation toward Revolution. Focus on what Line 5 represents (leadership, vision, upper position).

Sensitivity Analysis in Astrology

Aspect Sensitivity

Which aspects have the greatest impact on chart dynamics?

Method: Calculate aspect strength, test removal.

Example chart:
• Sun trine Moon (strength 0.8)
• Sun square Saturn (strength 0.7)
• Venus trine Jupiter (strength 0.6)
• Mars opposite Pluto (strength 0.9)

Baseline chart tension: +2.0 (moderately harmonious)

Test removing each aspect:
• Remove Sun trine Moon: Tension = +1.2 (change of -0.8) → HIGH SENSITIVITY
• Remove Sun square Saturn: Tension = +2.7 (change of +0.7) → HIGH SENSITIVITY
• Remove Venus trine Jupiter: Tension = +1.4 (change of -0.6) → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
• Remove Mars opposite Pluto: Tension = +2.9 (change of +0.9) → HIGHEST SENSITIVITY

Sensitivity ranking:
1. Mars opposite Pluto (±0.9) — Most critical dynamic
2. Sun trine Moon (±0.8) — Core stabilizing force
3. Sun square Saturn (±0.7) — Major challenge
4. Venus trine Jupiter (±0.6) — Supportive but less critical

Interpretation: Mars-Pluto opposition is the highest-leverage aspect. Working with this dynamic (power, transformation, intensity) will have the greatest impact on overall chart expression.

The 80/20 Rule in Divination

The Pareto Principle applies to divination: 20% of variables create 80% of outcomes.

Identifying the Critical 20%

Method: Rank all variables by sensitivity, identify the top 20%.

Example (12 variables):
Top 20% = Top 2-3 variables
• Ace of Wands (opportunity)
• Saturn (restriction)
• King of Pentacles (skill)

These 3 variables account for ~80% of outcome variance.

Strategic Implication

Focus 80% of your energy on the top 20% of variables.

Action plan:
• High priority (80% of effort): Seize opportunity (Ace of Wands), address restriction (Saturn), develop skill (King of Pentacles)
• Medium priority (15% of effort): Build support (Six of Pentacles), manage emotions (Five of Cups)
• Low priority (5% of effort): Everything else—don't ignore, but don't obsess

Case Study: Business Launch Sensitivity Analysis

Question: "What variables most impact my business launch success?"

Reading (10 variables identified):
1. Product quality (King of Pentacles): +8
2. Marketing (Three of Wands): +6
3. Funding (Ace of Pentacles): +7
4. Team (Three of Cups): +5
5. Market timing (Wheel of Fortune): +4
6. Founder confidence (The Magician): +9
7. Competition (Five of Swords): -3
8. Economic conditions (The Emperor): +3
9. Technology (Eight of Pentacles): +6
10. Customer need (Six of Pentacles): +8

Baseline outcome: Average = +5.3 (moderately positive)

Sensitivity testing (impact on outcome if variable changes ±5 points):

1. Customer need: ±1.2 impact → HIGHEST SENSITIVITY
2. Product quality: ±1.0 impact → VERY HIGH SENSITIVITY
3. Funding: ±0.9 impact → HIGH SENSITIVITY
4. Marketing: ±0.7 impact → MEDIUM-HIGH SENSITIVITY
5. Competition: ±0.6 impact → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
6. Technology: ±0.4 impact → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
7. Team: ±0.4 impact → MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
8. Founder confidence: ±0.3 impact → LOW-MEDIUM SENSITIVITY
9. Market timing: ±0.2 impact → LOW SENSITIVITY
10. Economic conditions: ±0.1 impact → VERY LOW SENSITIVITY

Surprising findings:
• Customer need is #1 (not product quality!) — If customers don't need it, nothing else matters
• Founder confidence is low sensitivity — Confidence is high (+9) but doesn't drive outcome as much as expected
• Economic conditions barely matter — External macro factors have minimal impact

Strategic priorities (80/20 rule):
Top 20% (focus 80% of effort):
1. Validate customer need (Six of Pentacles) — Most critical
2. Ensure product quality (King of Pentacles) — Second most critical
3. Secure funding (Ace of Pentacles) — Third most critical

Action plan:
• Week 1-2: Customer validation (interviews, surveys, pre-sales) — Highest leverage
• Week 3-4: Product refinement based on customer feedback — Second priority
• Week 5-6: Funding strategy (investors, loans, bootstrapping) — Third priority
• Ongoing (lower priority): Marketing, team building, tech development — Important but less sensitive

Common Sensitivity Patterns

Pattern 1: The Obvious Variable is Not the Most Sensitive

What seems most important often isn't.

Example: Founder believes "confidence" (The Magician) is key, but sensitivity analysis shows "customer need" (Six of Pentacles) is 4x more impactful.

Pattern 2: Negative Variables Have Higher Sensitivity

Obstacles often have more impact than opportunities.

Example: Removing Saturn (restriction, -5) improves outcome more than adding Jupiter (expansion, +8).

Pattern 3: Multiplier Variables Appear Low-Sensitivity

Variables that amplify others seem unimportant in isolation but are critical in combination.

Example: The Magician (belief) alone = low sensitivity. But Magician × Ace of Wands = high sensitivity. Don't ignore multipliers.

Why Sensitivity Analysis Changes Divination

Traditional divination: All variables treated equally, general advice, scattered focus.

Sensitivity analysis: Variables ranked by impact, strategic priorities identified, focused action on high-leverage factors, 80/20 principle applied.

This transforms divination from general guidance into strategic prioritization—you know exactly where to focus for maximum impact.

The old way: Interpret all cards equally, try to address everything, scatter energy. The new way: Rank variables by sensitivity, identify the critical 20%, focus 80% of effort there, achieve maximum impact. From equal to prioritized. From scattered to focused. From general to strategic. This is sensitivity analysis.