Scenario Analysis in Divination: Beyond Yes/No Predictions

BY NICOLE LAU

Traditional divination asks binary questions: "Will I get the job?" "Should I move?" "Will this relationship work?" The answer is yes or no, maybe with some symbolic nuance. But reality is not binary—it's multi-dimensional, probabilistic, and path-dependent. The future is not one outcome, but a space of possible scenarios.

In Dynamic Divination Modeling Theory, we don't ask "What will happen?" We ask "What could happen?" and map multiple scenarios—best case, worst case, most likely, and wild card. Then we analyze which scenarios converge (pointing to robust patterns) and which diverge (showing uncertainty). This is scenario analysis—a strategic planning method used by corporations, governments, and military strategists, now applied to divination.

This article teaches you how to move beyond yes/no predictions into rigorous multi-scenario modeling using divination as your analytical tool.

What is Scenario Analysis?

Scenario analysis is a strategic planning method that explores multiple plausible futures rather than trying to predict one "correct" future. It was developed by Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s and is now standard practice in business strategy, risk management, and policy planning.

The core insight: The future is uncertain, but not random. There are multiple possible futures, each with different probabilities and different implications. By mapping these scenarios, you can:

• Identify robust strategies (that work across multiple scenarios)
• Prepare for risks (by exploring worst cases)
• Recognize opportunities (by exploring best cases)
• Spot convergence (where multiple scenarios point to the same outcome—a strong signal)
• Understand divergence (where scenarios differ—indicating high uncertainty or bifurcation points)

The Four Core Scenarios

In DDMT scenario analysis, we map four primary scenarios for any question:

1. Best Case Scenario

Question: "If everything goes right, what's the optimal outcome?"

This scenario assumes:
• All supportive variables align favorably
• Reinforcing loops activate (positive spirals)
• Opportunities are seized
• Obstacles are overcome or avoided
• Timing is perfect

Purpose: Identify the upper bound of possibility, recognize opportunities, understand what "success" looks like in this situation.

Divination method: Draw tarot cards or cast I Ching asking "What does the best possible outcome look like?"

2. Worst Case Scenario

Question: "If everything goes wrong, what's the downside risk?"

This scenario assumes:
• All challenging variables create maximum obstacles
• Balancing loops resist change (or reinforcing loops create negative spirals)
• Opportunities are missed
• Obstacles compound
• Timing is terrible

Purpose: Identify risks, prepare for challenges, understand what you need to protect against, assess if the downside is acceptable.

Divination method: Draw tarot cards or cast runes asking "What does the worst possible outcome look like?"

3. Most Likely Scenario

Question: "Given current momentum and patterns, where is the system actually heading?"

This scenario assumes:
• Current trends continue
• Existing feedback loops remain dominant
• No major surprises or disruptions
• You act consistently with past behavior
• External conditions remain relatively stable

Purpose: Identify the baseline expectation, understand the default trajectory, recognize what will happen if you don't intervene.

Divination method: Draw tarot cards or cast I Ching asking "Where is this situation naturally heading?"

4. Wild Card Scenario

Question: "What unexpected variables could disrupt the system?"

This scenario assumes:
• Unforeseen events occur (positive or negative)
• Hidden variables suddenly become active
• External shocks hit the system
• Synchronicities or "black swan" events
• The system behaves non-linearly (small cause, large effect)

Purpose: Prepare for the unexpected, identify blind spots, recognize that reality can surprise you, stay flexible.

Divination method: Draw tarot cards asking "What am I not seeing? What could surprise me?"

Scenario Analysis Method: Step-by-Step

Step 1: Define Your Question Clearly

Not "Will I succeed?" but "What are the possible outcomes of [specific situation]?"

Example: "What are the possible scenarios for launching my online course?"

Step 2: Map Best Case Scenario

Divination: Draw 3 tarot cards asking "What does the best possible outcome look like?"

Example result:
• Card 1: Ace of Pentacles (abundant financial success)
• Card 2: Three of Cups (community building, enthusiastic students)
• Card 3: The Sun (recognition, joy, fulfillment)

Scenario interpretation: Best case = Course sells well, builds engaged community, brings recognition and fulfillment. Revenue exceeds expectations, students love it, you become known in your field.

Probability estimate: 20% (optimistic but possible if everything aligns)

Step 3: Map Worst Case Scenario

Divination: Draw 3 tarot cards asking "What does the worst possible outcome look like?"

Example result:
• Card 1: Five of Pentacles (financial loss, poor sales)
• Card 2: Five of Cups (disappointment, unmet expectations)
• Card 3: Eight of Swords (feeling trapped, limiting beliefs confirmed)

Scenario interpretation: Worst case = Course doesn't sell, you lose money on production, feel disappointed and question your abilities. Reinforces limiting beliefs about your value.

Probability estimate: 15% (possible if you don't market well or timing is off)

Step 4: Map Most Likely Scenario

Divination: Draw 3 tarot cards asking "Where is this naturally heading?"

Example result:
• Card 1: Eight of Pentacles (steady work, gradual building)
• Card 2: Two of Pentacles (balancing, moderate success)
• Card 3: Six of Pentacles (giving and receiving, sustainable exchange)

Scenario interpretation: Most likely = Course has moderate success, requires ongoing work, builds slowly but sustainably. Not a huge hit, but not a failure—steady, balanced growth.

Probability estimate: 50% (this is the baseline expectation)

Step 5: Map Wild Card Scenario

Divination: Draw 2 tarot cards asking "What could surprise me?"

Example result:
• Card 1: The Tower (sudden disruption, unexpected event)
• Card 2: The Star (unexpected support, viral moment)

Scenario interpretation: Wild card = Something unexpected happens—could be disruptive (Tower: platform crashes, controversy) or supportive (Star: influencer shares it, goes viral). High uncertainty.

Probability estimate: 15% (low probability but high impact if it occurs)

Step 6: Check for Scenario Convergence

Look for patterns that appear across multiple scenarios—these are robust predictions (likely to occur regardless of which scenario unfolds).

Example convergence analysis:
• Work/effort required: Appears in best case (implied), most likely (Eight of Pentacles), and even worst case (you tried). Convergence: You will need to work hard regardless of outcome.
• Community element: Appears in best case (Three of Cups) and most likely (Six of Pentacles = exchange with others). Convergence: Community/relationships will be important.
• Financial variability: Ranges from loss (Five of Pentacles) to abundance (Ace of Pentacles) to balance (Two of Pentacles). Divergence: Financial outcome is highly uncertain—depends on execution.

Step 7: Identify Leverage Points

Based on scenario analysis, identify where you can intervene to shift probability toward best case and away from worst case.

Example leverage points:
• Marketing: Worst case shows poor sales (Five of Pentacles)—invest in marketing to shift toward best case
• Community building: Best and most likely both show community importance—focus on building engaged audience
• Mindset: Worst case shows limiting beliefs (Eight of Swords)—work on confidence to prevent self-sabotage
• Flexibility: Wild card shows unexpected events—build flexibility to handle surprises

Advanced Technique: SWOT Analysis with Divination

SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) is a classic strategic planning tool. We can map it using divination:

SWOT Divination Spread

Draw 4 cards (or cast 4 runes, or consult I Ching 4 times):

Card 1 - Strengths: What internal factors support success?
Card 2 - Weaknesses: What internal factors create challenges?
Card 3 - Opportunities: What external factors offer potential?
Card 4 - Threats: What external factors create risks?

Example: Career change SWOT

Card 1 (Strengths): King of Pentacles = Mastery, financial stability, proven track record
Card 2 (Weaknesses): Four of Cups = Apathy, boredom, lack of passion in current role
Card 3 (Opportunities): Ace of Wands = New creative opportunity available in market
Card 4 (Threats): Five of Pentacles = Financial insecurity during transition

SWOT Analysis:
• Leverage strength to seize opportunity: Use your mastery (King of Pentacles) to confidently pursue the new opportunity (Ace of Wands)
• Address weakness: The apathy (Four of Cups) is draining you—this validates the need for change
• Mitigate threat: Build financial buffer to handle transition period (Five of Pentacles risk)

Scenario Convergence: The Power of Agreement

When multiple scenarios point to the same outcome despite different paths, you've found a robust pattern—something likely to occur regardless of variables.

Example: Relationship decision

Question: "What are the scenarios for staying in this relationship?"

Best case: Two of Cups → The Lovers → Ten of Cups (deep love, commitment, family bliss)
Worst case: Three of Swords → The Tower → Five of Cups (heartbreak, dramatic end, grief)
Most likely: Seven of Cups → The Hanged Man → Eight of Cups (confusion, suspension, eventual walking away)
Wild card: Death → Temperance (transformation, healing, possible renewal)

Convergence analysis:
• No convergence on staying together: Best case shows bliss, worst shows breakup, most likely shows leaving, wild card shows transformation
• Convergence on transformation: All scenarios involve major change—either deepening (best), ending (worst/most likely), or transforming (wild card)
• Strong signal: Three out of four scenarios (worst, most likely, wild card) involve separation or major shift

Interpretation: The relationship will not continue in its current form. Either it transforms dramatically (best/wild card) or it ends (worst/most likely). Status quo is not an option—this is a robust prediction across scenarios.

Scenario Divergence: Recognizing Uncertainty

When scenarios show completely different outcomes, you're at a bifurcation point—a moment where small changes determine which path you take.

Example: Business partnership decision

Best case: Ace of Pentacles → Three of Pentacles → Ten of Pentacles (profitable collaboration, shared success, legacy)
Worst case: Five of Swords → Seven of Swords → Ten of Swords (conflict, betrayal, complete breakdown)
Most likely: Two of Pentacles → Six of Pentacles → Four of Pentacles (balancing act, some exchange, eventual hoarding/separation)
Wild card: The Fool → Wheel of Fortune (unexpected beginning, fate/chance plays role)

Divergence analysis:
• Extreme divergence: Best case is legacy-building, worst case is betrayal—completely opposite
• No clear convergence: Scenarios don't agree on outcome
• High uncertainty: This indicates a bifurcation point—the decision is highly sensitive to initial conditions

Interpretation: This partnership could go either way. Small factors (trust, communication, alignment) will determine which scenario unfolds. This is a high-risk, high-reward situation. Recommendation: Proceed cautiously, establish clear agreements, monitor closely for early warning signs of worst case.

Probability Weighting

Assign rough probabilities to each scenario based on:

• Current momentum (most likely gets highest probability)
  • Supportive vs. challenging variables (more support = higher best case probability)
  • Your agency (how much control do you have?)
  • External stability (stable environment = lower wild card probability)

Example probability distribution:
• Best case: 20%
• Worst case: 15%
• Most likely: 50%
• Wild card: 15%
Total: 100%

This gives you a probabilistic forecast rather than a binary prediction.

Case Study: Job Offer Decision

Question: "What are the scenarios for accepting this job offer?"

Best case (20%): Three of Pentacles → Six of Wands → The Sun
Interpretation: Great collaboration, recognition, fulfillment. You thrive, get promoted, love the work.

Worst case (20%): Five of Pentacles → Nine of Swords → Ten of Swords
Interpretation: Financial stress (pay cut impact), anxiety, burnout. Job is terrible, you quit within a year.

Most likely (50%): Eight of Pentacles → Four of Pentacles → Seven of Pentacles
Interpretation: Steady work, some financial caution, waiting for results. Job is fine, not amazing, you stay 2-3 years then reassess.

Wild card (10%): The Tower → The Star
Interpretation: Unexpected disruption (company restructure, role changes) followed by unexpected opportunity (new position opens, you pivot).

Convergence: All scenarios show you taking the job (no scenario shows you declining). The question is not "Should I take it?" but "What will happen if I do?"

Divergence: Outcome quality varies widely (Sun vs. Ten of Swords). High uncertainty about whether this will be good or bad.

Leverage points:
• Shift toward best case: Focus on collaboration (Three of Pentacles), seek visibility (Six of Wands)
• Avoid worst case: Negotiate salary to prevent financial stress (Five of Pentacles), set boundaries to prevent burnout (Nine of Swords)
• Prepare for wild card: Stay flexible, build skills that transfer if company changes (Tower)

Decision: Take the job, but with eyes open. It's not guaranteed success, but the most likely scenario is acceptable, and you can influence the outcome toward best case.

Why Scenario Analysis Changes Divination

Traditional divination: Ask yes/no question, get one answer, make binary decision.

Scenario analysis divination: Map multiple possible futures, identify convergence (robust patterns) and divergence (uncertainty), assign probabilities, find leverage points to shift outcomes, make informed strategic decision.

This transforms divination from fortune-telling into strategic foresight—you're not predicting the future, you're mapping the possibility space and navigating it consciously.

The old way: Will it work? Yes or no. Hope for the best. The new way: Map best case, worst case, most likely, wild card. Find convergence. Identify leverage. Shift probabilities. Navigate scenarios. From binary to probabilistic. From prediction to strategy. From fate to agency. This is scenario analysis. This is how you map the future's possibility space.