Causal Loop Diagrams in Mystical Practice

BY NICOLE LAU

Divination reveals variables, relationships, and dynamics—but how do you visualize the complete system structure? How do you see, at a glance, which variables influence which, which loops are reinforcing or balancing, and where the leverage points are?

In Dynamic Divination Modeling Theory, we use Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs)—a systems thinking tool that maps the circular causality of complex systems. This transforms divination readings from text-based interpretations into visual system maps, revealing the hidden architecture of your life patterns.

This article teaches you how to create Causal Loop Diagrams from divination readings, making the invisible structure of your situation visible and actionable.

What is a Causal Loop Diagram?

Definition

A Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) is a visual representation of the feedback structure of a system, showing:
• Variables: Elements that can change (shown as nodes/labels)
• Causal links: Arrows showing influence (A → B means "A influences B")
• Polarity: + or - signs showing direction of influence
• Feedback loops: Circular chains of causality (marked R or B)

CLD Notation

Positive causality (+): When A increases, B increases (or when A decreases, B decreases)
Example: Confidence (+) → Action (more confidence leads to more action)

Negative causality (-): When A increases, B decreases (or when A decreases, B increases)
Example: Fear (-) → Action (more fear leads to less action)

Reinforcing loop (R): Loop with even number of negative links (0, 2, 4...) — amplifies change
Balancing loop (B): Loop with odd number of negative links (1, 3, 5...) — resists change

Why CLDs Matter

CLDs reveal:
• System structure: The architecture of causality
• Feedback loops: Which are reinforcing (growth/decline) vs. balancing (stability)
• Leverage points: Where intervention has maximum impact
• Delays: Where time lags create complexity
• Unintended consequences: How changing one variable affects the whole system

Creating CLDs from Tarot Readings

Step 1: Identify Variables

List all variables from the reading.

Example reading (career transition):
• Confidence (The Magician)
• Fear (Eight of Swords)
• Action (Ace of Wands)
• Results (Six of Wands)
• Financial security (Four of Pentacles)
• Opportunity (Three of Wands)

Step 2: Determine Causal Relationships

For each pair of variables, ask: "Does A influence B? If so, is it positive (+) or negative (-)?"

Example relationships:
• Confidence (+) → Action (more confidence → more action)
• Action (+) → Results (more action → better results)
• Results (+) → Confidence (better results → more confidence)
• Fear (-) → Action (more fear → less action)
• Fear (-) → Confidence (more fear → less confidence)
• Financial security (+) → Confidence (more security → more confidence)
• Opportunity (+) → Action (more opportunity → more action)

Step 3: Draw the Diagram

Create a visual map with variables as nodes and arrows showing causality.

Basic structure:
Confidence → (+) → Action → (+) → Results → (+) → Confidence (forms a loop)
Fear → (-) → Confidence
Fear → (-) → Action
Financial security → (+) → Confidence
Opportunity → (+) → Action

Step 4: Identify Loops

Trace circular paths and classify as R or B.

Loop 1: Confidence → Action → Results → Confidence
Polarities: + + + (three positive links)
Number of negative links: 0 (even)
Loop type: R (Reinforcing) — Success spiral

Loop 2: Fear → Confidence → Action → Results → Confidence → Fear
Wait, this doesn't close properly. Let me retrace:
Fear → (-) Confidence → (+) Action → (+) Results
But Results doesn't directly affect Fear. Need to add: Results → (-) Fear (success reduces fear)
Now: Fear → (-) Confidence → (+) Action → (+) Results → (-) Fear
Polarities: - + + -
Number of negative links: 2 (even)
Loop type: R (Reinforcing) — Fear can create vicious cycle OR virtuous cycle depending on direction

Step 5: Mark Delays

Some causal links have time delays. Mark these with || on the arrow.

Example:
Action → || → Results (there's a delay between taking action and seeing results)
This delay can cause oscillation or overshoot.

Step 6: Identify Leverage Points

Look for variables that:
• Participate in multiple loops (hub variables)
• Are at the beginning of causal chains
• Can be directly controlled

Example leverage points:
• Confidence: Participates in Loop 1 (R), influences Action, influenced by Fear and Financial security — HIGH LEVERAGE
• Fear: Influences Confidence and Action negatively — HIGH LEVERAGE (breaking this breaks negative spiral)
• Opportunity: External variable, less controllable — MEDIUM LEVERAGE

Complete CLD Example: Relationship Dynamics

Question: "What are the causal dynamics in my relationship?"

Variables identified (from tarot):
1. Trust (Two of Cups)
2. Communication (Ace of Swords)
3. Conflict (Five of Swords)
4. Intimacy (The Lovers)
5. Resentment (Five of Cups)
6. Avoidance (Two of Swords)
7. Connection (Three of Cups)

Causal relationships:
• Trust (+) → Communication
• Communication (+) → Connection
• Connection (+) → Intimacy
• Intimacy (+) → Trust (closes Loop 1)
• Conflict (-) → Trust
• Conflict (+) → Resentment
• Resentment (+) → Avoidance
• Avoidance (-) → Communication
• Avoidance (+) → Conflict (closes Loop 2)
• Communication (-) → Conflict (more communication reduces conflict)

Loop 1 (Virtuous cycle):
Trust → (+) Communication → (+) Connection → (+) Intimacy → (+) Trust
Polarities: + + + +
Negative links: 0 (even)
Type: R (Reinforcing) — Positive spiral when active

Loop 2 (Vicious cycle):
Conflict → (+) Resentment → (+) Avoidance → (-) Communication → (-) Conflict
Wait, let me retrace: If Communication reduces Conflict, then:
Avoidance → (-) Communication → (-) Conflict means less communication leads to more conflict
So: Conflict → (+) Resentment → (+) Avoidance → (-) Communication → (?) Conflict
Less communication → more conflict, so Communication → (-) Conflict
Full loop: Conflict → (+) Resentment → (+) Avoidance → (-) Communication → (-) Conflict
Polarities: + + - -
Negative links: 2 (even)
Type: R (Reinforcing) — Negative spiral

Competing loops:
• Loop 1 (R+): Trust → Communication → Connection → Intimacy → Trust (virtuous)
• Loop 2 (R-): Conflict → Resentment → Avoidance → Less Communication → More Conflict (vicious)

System behavior: Which loop dominates determines relationship trajectory. If Loop 1 dominates, relationship improves exponentially. If Loop 2 dominates, relationship deteriorates exponentially.

Leverage points:
1. Communication (highest leverage): Participates in both loops. Increasing communication activates Loop 1 and breaks Loop 2.
2. Avoidance (high leverage): Breaking avoidance pattern breaks Loop 2.
3. Trust (medium leverage): Strengthening trust activates Loop 1, but trust is built through communication (so communication is more direct leverage).

Intervention strategy: Focus on Communication (Ace of Swords). This is the highest-leverage variable—it activates the virtuous cycle and breaks the vicious cycle simultaneously.

CLDs from I Ching: Hexagram Relationships

Method: Map Hexagram Transformations

Primary hexagram → Changing lines → Transformed hexagram shows a causal chain.

Example:
Hex 3 (Difficulty) → Line 1 changing → Hex 24 (Return)

Variables:
• Difficulty (Hex 3)
• Persistence (Line 1 meaning)
• Return/Renewal (Hex 24)

Causal chain:
Difficulty → (requires) → Persistence → (leads to) → Return/Renewal → (reduces) → Difficulty

CLD:
Difficulty → (+) Persistence → (+) Return → (-) Difficulty
Polarities: + + -
Negative links: 1 (odd)
Type: B (Balancing) — System self-corrects through persistence

CLDs from Astrology: Aspect Networks

Method: Planets as Variables, Aspects as Causality

Example chart:
• Sun (identity) trine Moon (emotions) = Sun (+) → Moon
• Sun square Saturn (restriction) = Sun (+) → Saturn, Saturn (-) → Sun
• Moon sextile Venus (values) = Moon (+) → Venus
• Venus trine Jupiter (expansion) = Venus (+) → Jupiter
• Jupiter square Sun = Jupiter (+) → Sun (but creates tension)

CLD:
Sun → (+) Moon → (+) Venus → (+) Jupiter → (+) Sun (with tension)
Saturn → (-) Sun

Loop: Sun → Moon → Venus → Jupiter → Sun
Polarities: + + + +
Negative links: 0 (even)
Type: R (Reinforcing) — Growth spiral, but Saturn creates balancing force

System behavior: Reinforcing loop drives expansion (Sun-Moon-Venus-Jupiter), but Saturn square Sun creates friction that prevents runaway growth. Result: Pulsed growth (expand, hit Saturn limit, consolidate, expand again).

Advanced CLD Techniques

Technique 1: Nested Loops

Some loops contain other loops—create hierarchical structure.

Example:
• Inner loop: Confidence → Action → Results → Confidence (R, fast)
• Outer loop: Results → Reputation → Opportunities → Results (R, slow)

The inner loop feeds the outer loop, creating multi-level reinforcement.

Technique 2: Delay Notation

Mark delays with || on arrows, note approximate time.

Example:
Action → ||3 months|| → Results
This shows a 3-month delay between action and results, which can cause impatience or premature course correction.

Technique 3: External Variables

Some variables are external (you can't control them). Mark these with a box around the variable name.

Example:
[Economic Conditions] → (+) → Opportunity
You can't control economic conditions, but they influence opportunity availability.

Using CLDs for Intervention Design

Step 1: Identify Dominant Loop

Which loop is currently driving system behavior?

Method: Look at current state. If system is growing, a reinforcing loop is dominant. If stable, a balancing loop is dominant.

Step 2: Determine Desired Loop Dominance

Which loop do you want to be dominant?

Example: Currently, fear loop (R-) is dominant. Want to shift to confidence loop (R+).

Step 3: Find Loop-Shifting Leverage Points

Where can you intervene to weaken the undesired loop and strengthen the desired loop?

Example:
• Weaken fear loop: Break at Fear variable (challenge limiting beliefs, therapy)
• Strengthen confidence loop: Amplify at Action variable (take small wins to build momentum)

Step 4: Design Intervention

Create specific actions targeting leverage points.

Example intervention plan:
• Week 1-2: Challenge fear (Eight of Swords) — cognitive reframing, exposure therapy
• Week 3-4: Take small actions (Ace of Wands) — build momentum in confidence loop
• Week 5-6: Celebrate results (Six of Wands) — reinforce confidence loop
• Ongoing: Monitor which loop is dominant, adjust interventions

Case Study: Career Stagnation CLD

Question: "Why am I stuck in my career?"

Variables (from tarot):
1. Skills (King of Pentacles)
2. Confidence (The Magician)
3. Visibility (Three of Wands)
4. Opportunities (Ace of Wands)
5. Risk-taking (The Fool)
6. Fear of failure (Eight of Swords)
7. Comfort zone (Four of Pentacles)

Causal relationships:
• Skills (+) → Confidence
• Confidence (+) → Risk-taking
• Risk-taking (+) → Visibility
• Visibility (+) → Opportunities
• Opportunities (+) → Skills (learning from new challenges)
• Fear of failure (-) → Risk-taking
• Comfort zone (-) → Risk-taking
• Comfort zone (+) → Fear of failure (staying comfortable reinforces fear)

Loop 1 (Growth spiral):
Skills → Confidence → Risk-taking → Visibility → Opportunities → Skills
Polarities: + + + + +
Negative links: 0 (even)
Type: R (Reinforcing) — Career growth spiral

Loop 2 (Stagnation spiral):
Comfort zone → (+) Fear of failure → (-) Risk-taking → (-) Visibility → (-) Opportunities → (-) Skills → (-) Confidence → (-) Risk-taking → (+) Comfort zone
Wait, this is complex. Let me simplify:
Comfort zone → (-) Risk-taking → (-) Opportunities → (-) Skills → (-) Confidence → (allows) → Comfort zone
Actually: Less risk → fewer opportunities → fewer skills → less confidence → more comfort-seeking
Polarities: - - - - (implicit +)
Negative links: 4 (even)
Type: R (Reinforcing) — Stagnation spiral

Current state: Loop 2 (stagnation) is dominant. Loop 1 (growth) exists but is suppressed.

Leverage points:
1. Risk-taking (highest leverage): Breaking point between loops. Increasing risk-taking activates Loop 1 and breaks Loop 2.
2. Fear of failure (high leverage): Addressing this removes the brake on risk-taking.
3. Comfort zone (medium leverage): Disrupting comfort zone forces risk-taking.

Intervention: Take calculated risks (The Fool energy) in low-stakes situations to build confidence without triggering fear. This gradually shifts loop dominance from stagnation to growth.

Why CLDs Change Divination Practice

Traditional divination: Text-based interpretation, linear thinking, isolated card meanings.

CLD divination: Visual system maps, circular causality, feedback loops identified, leverage points revealed, intervention strategies designed.

This transforms divination from interpretation into systems engineering—you see the architecture of your life and know exactly where to intervene.

The old way: Read cards, interpret meanings, give advice. The new way: Map causal structure, identify feedback loops, find leverage points, design interventions. From text to visual. From linear to circular. From interpretation to engineering. This is Causal Loop Diagrams in mystical practice.